Scottish independence is the flavour of the month and I suspect will be up to the forthcoming referendum as been voted on. I think it is important to state right now I think should be independent if that is what is voted for however if it will not be as easy as the Scot Nats would like you to believe. Here are some of the minor and major pitfalls that will need to be sorted out should the Scots vote yes. (They are listed in order of how problematic they may well turn out to be.)
Scottish Regiments
There are a number of Scottish regiments which should be reasonably easy to divorce from the British Army. However, there are a large number of support units that are not. An example would be the Logistics Corp, just what part, if any, would go to the new Scottish army? What size of standing army would Scotland want to support and what would their role be?
Scottish Navy and Airforce
These would be much more difficult to divorce from the Royal Navy and Air Force. Perhaps the only thing that seems certain is that the nuclear subs would leave Scotland for England. Who knows which, if any, of the ships and aircraft would be passed to Scotland and who what would the price be?
British Government Jobs In Scotland.
There are around 31,000 jobs in Scotland that relate to British Government functions rather than Scottish Government functions, perhaps the best example would be the Students Loans administrators who are based in Glasgow, yet Scotland does not charge for Scottish students to attend Scottish university. It is far to assume that most, if not all, of these jobs would be relocated out of Scotland to England or Wales.
Money
Currently the SNP intend to keep the pound as its currency until such time it can adopt the Euro. However, they would have no say in the way that the Bank of England administers the Pound. It has been suggested that Scotland would have representatives on the Bank of England board but who would that work in practice?
National Debt
Just what part of the British national debt would be passed to Scotland? An example would be RBS. Currently the British Government has lent (given?) around 45 billion pounds to RBS, a Scottish Bank. Does all or some of the debt go to Scotland and what about the shares these bought where do they go to? Currently the British national debt stand at 1 trillion pounds. Scotland makes up around 8% of the population so in theory should get around 80 billion pounds in debt. Is this what should happen?
Pensions and Benefits
This where it starts to get really complicated. What, if any, of the British pensions and benefits should be paid by the new Scottish nation and how would they be paid for and how would they be calculated. An example might be some one born in Glasgow, worked for around 20 years in Scotland and then moved to Manchester for a job. He then worked there for another 20 plus years before he retires and decides to move back to Scotland. What proportion of his pension would be paid for by the Scottish government and what by the British government? I am sure Sir Alex Ferguson would love to know where his pension would be coming from. This of course feeds back into National Debt question as well as the Money question.
Europe.
Currently Scotland is part of the EU as it is a constituent part of the UK. However, if it leaves the UK then it would no longer be part of the EU. The UK, after all would still exist. Of course there may be no problems with all this but consider what might happen if there was a serious disagreement between the UK government and Scotland over one of the many pitfalls outlined above. The UK could then block Scottish membership of the EU until the matter is resolved Where would that leave Scotland?
Immigration
Should Scotland become part of the EU would they join the Shengan agreement? If that is the case then the borders of Scotland would be open much more than they are now and how would that effect England? I know this is far fetched but would that mean that there would be passport controls between England and Scotland and perhaps a fence of the Cheviots?
Oil and Shetland
Underlying all this is the question of oil. The argument has been that Scotland would be very rich given the oil reserves it has, even though they have been diminished. The only problem with this is that most of the oil is situated around the waters of Shetland and what if Shetland doesn't want to leave the UK. In the last referendum on Scottish independence that is exactly what happened. What would the newly independent Scotland do when all of a sudden the oil revenues are no longer there? Perhaps they could invade the Shetland isles.
Rockall
Just who would have sovereignty over this small rock far out in the north Atlantic? A small question it would seem but with some large consequences as there would appear to a lot of oil in and around the rock.
England
The final question which doesn't seem to have been asked at all but is vitally important is what does England think about Scottish independence? England is by far the largest part of the UK and as yet been missing from the Scottish question. What would happen to Scottish plans should the English lion roars once more in the land. This is a much bigger question should the independence vote be lost and Devo Max be introduced north of the border. Then we should see some serious fireworks when the inequalities between the treatment of the two nations are highlighted.
The SNP win the vote but loose the Election.
The SNP have to stand for re-election in 2015 and what happens if they loose this election even if they have won the referendum vote to be replaced by a Unionist Scottish government. What would happen then? After all who would have thought that Churchill would have lost the election after winning the war but he did.
I am sure there are many more issues that need to be thought about and debated over the next few years. It is going to be very interesting to see how this all turns out.
Posted via email from SIMON's posterous
