Tuesday, 11 May 2010

The greasy pole beckons

So sense appears to have prevailed and we have a the makings of a coalition government between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.  During the day the proposed Labour offer appears to have evaporated for whatever reason.   Now we have the scramble for government jobs.

As I write this the Lib Dems have yet to formally agree to the deal and they may just decided to throw it out.  However, the lure of being in government will no doubt be too strong.  There will no doubt be some mumbling from the side lines but the thought of a ministerial car, pay and privilege is very appealing - especially to MPs who just 4 weeks ago didn't really expect to actually be in this position to actually enact their policies, however, changed they may be.

As for the Conservatives they have one really big advantage going for them.   Their MPs are going to be made up of a people who directly owe their seat to David Cameron.   They have no experience of working in parliament beyond this week and so are far less likely to cause problems.  There will always be some discontents but they will very quickly be voices in the wilderness and there is always a sweetener or two that the Prime Minister can push their way.

So what of Labour?   Who knows - I certainly don't.   They need sometime to recharge their batteries as well the party's bank balance so I would expect that they will be fairly subdued for the rest of this year.  They have, after all, to elect a new leader which may create some rather unseemly wounds they could well take a time to heal.  In short term  they are spent.  Their long term future really depends on the Nick Clegg.  If he is a success then they are in serious trouble.  If he fails then things might not be as bad.  However, it is worth remembering that the last time they got such drubbing at the polls it took the Labour party 14 years to get back in power - that was without a resurgent Lib Dem party.  Perhaps they might try to out Lib Dem the Lib Dems in an effort to be able to form the next coalition government.

This is all just speculation - the Lib Dems fail to ratify the agreement and the Conservatives will try to govern on their own.  If this happens then whole picture changes and it could really be RIP Lib Dem.  Events dear boy Events.
 

Simon Marchini LRPS

Posted via email from SIMON's posterous

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