I know I have been very critical of so called experts who claim to be able to see the future with 20/20 vision so I think it is important to state I have no idea what is going to happen. I think it is also important to say that in principle I have no problems with a Lib Lab pact/coalition/merger.
So given all those caveats I am totally bemused by the turn of events of the last hour or so. Gordon Brown has resigned, well sort of. He will be gone by September - probably. this was no doubt part of a strategy to try and turn the Lib Dems heads away from the Conservatives. In truth it wasn't difficult to do and it certainly makes far more sense for Labour and the Liberals to get together. However, and this is such a huge stumbling block, even together they do not have a simple majority, let alone a working majority, in the House of Commons. So there will have to be deals with the nationalist parties and possibly the single green party member. In the best of circumstances this wouldn't be easy but with forthcoming need for significant, no the largest ever, cut back in public spending. How will this hang together? I just can't see it.
I am old enough to remember when this was tried before in the late 1970s. It stuck for over 18 months and then unravelled very quickly. It could be argued that the economic circumstances were even graver then so the current mess, in itself, shouldn't be a problem. But the Lib/Lab pact was able to provide a working majority between themselves - this is not the case. Also the nationalist parties are so much stronger now in this potential arrangement that they will be able to block any changes that would effect their own parts of the UK. This has disaster written all over it but I think it is what is going to happen - now I hope the financial markets are looking the other way and are being very charitable. This whole thing could collapse within months and so the next election date may well be the 13th October 2010. If this is the case I really think it will be RIP Lib Dems. However, what the hell do I know?
Simon Marchini LRPS
Web: http://WWW.simonmarchini.co.uk
Twitter: http://twitter.com/@simonmarchini
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