I have had a night's sleep to mull over the coming and going at Westminster and I think I need to make a few points clear. The first is I think this whole process is healthy. I cannot see any reason why we shouldn't have a while to sort out which way the government will go. Already we have seen significant changes in the Conservative stance which may well better reflect what the country wants. The second is that a Lib/Lab coalition has the potential to be a game changer for the country - it really does. These are all positives. Another positive has been the ridicule that Lord Tebbit has exposed himself to. He might have been a voice at one time but now he is just an old man ragging against the modern world.
Having said all these things I just cannot see what is going to be achieved by such a coalition. I have just heard Lord Ashdown saying that he cannot see any circumstance that such a coalition will be voted down by the Nationalist or Greens. His argument is, I think, if you think we are bad then look at the alternatives i.e. the Tories. It is also based on the on the notion that there will be meaningful electoral reform - well here is the first thing that may well cause the thing to fall apart. Where is the mandate for such a move? There are many Labour MPs who are against this. I think that the DUP might also have a thing to say about this as they got 25% of the vote yet nearly 50% of the seats. How will they be persuaded that giving more power to Sinn Fein (which got slightly more votes) is a good thing?
Then we come to real issue - the economy. It is all very well saying that the Nationalists are likely to vote with the Lib/Lab coalition but what about England in all this? If it can be shown that England is being disadvantaged to help prop up a Lib/Lab coalition by pandering to Nationalist demands then the roof will fall in. Nothing is more likely to cause real problems than this as MPs work out that they are likely to be voted out at the next election unless they do something to stop their constituents being disadvantaged. It can be argued that this might only be one or two MPs but that is all it takes to bring a government down. I could go on.
So having slept on it I still cannot see any real logic in a Lib/Lab coalition. There is a huge amount empathy between the Lib Dems and Labour but they just don't have the votes to make it stick in any realistic sense. The Lib Dem heart may wish such a thing to come about but surely the Lib Dem head will say that it is a none starter. Which leaves us with a Lib Dem/Conservative coalition or Conservative minority government. As things stand I would suspect that the latter is the most likely but you just never know.
Is it Lib Dem RIP? I think it really is in their hands or perhaps more likely their hearts.
Simon Marchini LRPS
Web: http://WWW.simonmarchini.co.uk
Twitter: http://twitter.com/@simonmarchini
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