Well it has been just over two months since the new government came together and the most surprising thing it that it has not collapsed. Well that was the view of some commentators. Of course we are in very early days but they do appear to have a very convincing narrative on many subjects, deficit reduction aside. Will it last? I suspect much longer than many commentators and many on the Labour side fear - if only for the fact that should it fail then the Lib Dems will get slaughtered at the polls so having made their deal with the devil they are going to have to stick with it.
So what of Labour? I believe there is a maxim in politics that Labour governments fall when the money runs out. Well we are that point in cycle and sure enough Labour are out of office. How long for? Well that depends I suspect on what they want to offer the public. At the moment they are shell shocked and thrashing around for anything positive to say. They can't really argue that they are full of new ideas because, well they are not and if they were why weren't they put into action whilst they were still in government? The short answer is that the Labour party need sometime to work out where they are going to go next. This should start with the leadership election. At the moment it is nothing more than a group of ex ministers trying to pretend they know the way forward - they don't. At least Diane Abbot has the benefit of not having been a recent minister and so is not tarnished by power. Of course that is the reason why she will never get elected or if she did she would very quickly be found out to be not up to the job.
I am still trying to work out why Labour cuts are good and coalition cuts are bad. I suspect so are the Labour party. Everyone knew that there was going to be a huge series of cuts whichever party was returned at least know we are seeing some honesty returning to the political debate. Whether the cuts are too great or too soon is an important debate - at least know they are being argued over. Before the election every party pretend that there cuts were the fluffy type that wouldn't hurt a fly.
There is much talk at the moment about a forthcoming winter of discontent and huge protests. I am not sure this will happen. There will be some very vocal strikes but I doubt that they will have that much impact. After all the BA strikes have been dragging on now for months and does this really cause any problems. There will be some disruption in public sector but nothing that would compare to the 'winter of discontent'.
The one really great thing the coalition is doing is starting to claw back the excessive powers of the state that have been introduced 'to fight the war of terror'. For too long it has been acceptable to cut back on freedoms, the final straw for me was the stop and search powers under sec 44. This meant that in any designated area you could be stopped and possibly searched without the police having any reasonable grounds for this. It wouldn't prevent an attack or the preparation for an attack on a high profile target, say the Palace of Westminster, as on any given day there are thousands of people milling around the area and the chance that the police would be able to find the one or two people who might be planning such attacks is fanciful. The best way to prevent such attacks is good intelligence not the off chance that you might get lucky. Good that felt really good to get off my chest!
So am I optimistic about the future? Well of course I am. You should never believe all these experts that predict the world is going to fall apart. We have been through much worse and survived. Will it be tough - well yes I think so but life will go on and it will always be worth living. In the end I suspect we will do what comes natural to us all - we will muddle through. Lets hope I am right.
Simon Marchini LRPS
Web: http://WWW.simonmarchini.co.uk
Twitter: http://twitter.com/@simonmarchini
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