So what have we learnt from the election debates? Well the first is just how resilient Gordon brown is. Agree with him or disagree with you have to say it took guts to stand up on the stage instead of curling up in a ball and wanting the world to go away. However, that won't save him come election day - although the electoral system might - I think I have made myself clear on this point so there is no need to go one about it.
The second is that David Cameron is not that good in these situations. This is always a very subjective thing but I felt that he had the appearance of a rabbit caught in the headlights of an on coming car. The third thing is that Nick Clegg is actually very good on stage. He may not have the most coherent policies but I felt he cam across as the most relaxed and open of the three. This, in no small way has made this election wide open. I still believe that this is a once in a generation chance to change the way we vote and therefore the way we are governed and Nick Clegg's performance has contributed to this.
Now for the big question that all three frankly refused to answer. We all know that after the election whatever complexion of government is formed they are going to have to cut radically the size of the government spending. The parties may pretend to get our votes but cut it they will. The next government might try to pull the trick of using 'efficiency savings' as a means to achieve these cuts but these will simply not work. All this talk about not cutting until 2011/12 will also disappear. There will be big cuts this year.
So how will a minority government deal with this? I suspect better than it is assumed at the moment. No politician will be willing to go back to the country in six months time in vain attempt to get a majority - it just wouldn't wash. They will have to get on with it. The external pressures will be such that each party will cut. Oh they will try and make it look like it isn't a cut but it will be - and don't believe that pledges to ring fence budgets - they will all be cut or frozen, which given the inflation in health spending will be like a 10% cut. There will also be increases in tax - VAT being the most likely to rise almost straight away.
And so for the good news. We have been here before and survived. We are not Greece we are much bigger country/economy. We have a tradition of delivering - it will not be easy but it will work and out of the other end we may well have a much better governed country to boot. However, the road between here and there is going to be tough but as a country we will make it - I think...
Simon Marchini LRPS
Web: http://WWW.simonmarchini.co.uk
Twitter: http://twitter.com/@simonmarchini
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